People's Leasing Company Limited PLC IPO

 

People's Leasing Company, the market leader in the growing leasing industry, will go public with an IPO on 3rd November 2011. At the offer price of LKR 18.00, we believe PLC, a subsidiary of the state owned People's Bank, offers compelling investment value. In addition to the access to captive leasing portfolios of the parent, PLC is also able to operate on a significantly lower cost model with their ability to piggyback on the parent's branch network. With a leasing portfolio of 25% of the specialized leasing companies' asset base, PLC's disbursements dwarf even the Licensed Commercial Banks' leasing segments. Our TP of LKR 22.00 is based on relative multiples (earnings and book) considering PLC's competitive positioning. SUBSCRIBE.

 

 

 

BRS Equity Research | Bartleet Religare Securities (Pvt) Ltd, Sri Lanka

Lion Brewery (Ceylon) PLC - BRS Equity Research

Stable revenue growth in FY 2012E and FY 2013E

We expect LION to post a revenue of LKR 15.06bn in FY 2012E. Growing local demand for soft liquor and the Company’s increasing focus on capacity expansion would create top line growth in our view. We expect Gross Profit margins to remain healthy at 34% in FY 2012E and 35% in FY 2013E . Our forecasts have factored in a price increase of 3% for both FY 2012E and FY 2013E.

Consistent healthy margins, EBIT margin 16% (FY 2012E)

The Company recorded a recurring EBIT of LKR 1.75bn for FY 2011. We expect the EBIT to reach LKR 2.40bn in FY 2012E. EBIT margins are expected to be 16% in FY 2012E and FY 2013E. We believe the Company will have to manage its administration and distribution cost in order to maintain margins.

EPS estimates – LKR 15.25 (FY 2012E) and LKR 22.21 (FY 2013E)

BRS adjusted EPS for LION stands at LKR 12.11 for FY 2011. We expect the EPS to reach LKR 15.25 (+26% YoY) by FY 2012E and LKR 22.21 (+44% YoY) by FY 2013E. DPS is maintained at LKR 4.00.

Valuation – Attractive, potential value of LKR 252.50

Our valuation is based on the free cash flow method. Based on our forecast the stock has a potential value of LKR 252.50 on a WACC of ~ 10.3% and terminal growth rate of 3%. The cost of equity is based on a beta of 0.87 (based on ASPI vs. stock price movements), risk free rate of 7.4% and an equity risk premium of 5%. The stock has a forward PE multiple of 13.0x on FY 2012E EPS of LKR 15.25 and the current price of LKR 198.00. Based on FY 2013E EPS the stock has a PE multiple of 8.9x. The Food and Beverage sector PE stands at 15.1x as at 13th October 2011.

Sri Lanka climbs 10 places in the Global Competitiveness Report

The Annual Global Competitiveness Report (GCR) from the World Economic Forum (WEF) shows that Sri Lanka has made impressive progress over the last year. The country has climbed 10 places to the 52^nd rank in 2011-12. The GCR finds Asia has become globally more competitive as a result of its rise in economic prominence. Over the past five years, China, Indonesia, Vietnam, and Sri Lanka have made important strides in the GCI rankings.

The GCR report assesses the ability of countries to provide high levels of prosperity to their citizens, which in turn depends on how productively a country uses available resources. Therefore, the Global Competitiveness Index measures the set of institutions, policies, and factors that set the sustainable current and medium-term levels of economic prosperity.

Across all indicators, Sri Lanka shows improvements on 80% of them - 80-90 of the 110 indicators - both in terms of scores as well as rank. Sri Lanka made the greatest improvements in scores, year-on-year, in the pillars of ‘macroeconomic stability’ (up by 0.48 points) and ‘infrastructure’ (up by 0.33 points). Meanwhile, the most noteworthy decline in scores was in the pillar of ‘labour market efficiency’ (down by 0.11 points).

The dramatic jump by Sri Lanka in the last few years in GCR rankings might not be sustainable going forward. Also, it may be easier to bring in improvements in smaller economies, unlike India. But it may be noted that these strides are not only from peace dividends due to a strong positive sentiment since the end of the civil war. Indeed, most macroeconomic indicators also support the high growth and prosperity in the economy. The report lists inflation, access to financing, inefficient government bureaucracy, political instability, corruption and inadequate infrastructure as the main problems faced while doing business in Sri Lanka. We believe that many of these concerns are likely to wane with proactive policy intervention by the Sri Lankan government, while a few of them might just stay put, being ‘generic’ in nature.We remain positive on the sustainability of growth process in the economy.

On the global economy, Xavier Sala-i-Martin, Professor of Economics, Columbia University, USA, and co-author of the GCR, notes in the report - “Amid re-emerging concerns about the global economic outlook, policy-makers must not lose sight of long-term competitiveness fundamentals. For the recovery to be put on a more stable footing, emerging and developing economies must ensure that growth is based on productivity enhancements. Advanced economies, many of which struggle with fiscal challenges and anaemic growth, need to focus on competitiveness-enhancing measures in order to create a virtuous cycle of growth and ensure solid economic recovery.”